Cease Fire: Mindanao Final Agreement

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Cease Fire: Mindanao Final Agreement

Implementations

Cease Fire – 1996

There are no reports of any attacks by the MNLF or any armed clashes between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the MNLF following the Final Agreement. Reports show a drastic increase in MILF strength from 8,000 in 1996 to 15,420 in 1999, which suggests that MNLF fighters wishing to continue the fight joined MILF in large numbers.1

  1. Cesar Villanueva and George Aguilar, “The Reintegration of the Moro National Liberation Front in Mindanao,” Centre for International Cooperation and Security (University of Bradford, 2008).

Cease Fire – 1997

There are no reports of armed clashes between the GRP and the MNLF in 1997. The New People’s Army (NAP) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are active.1

  1. “Global Terrorism Database [Data file],” National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2011, accessed July 24, 2012, http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd.

Cease Fire – 1998

There are no reports of any armed clashes between the GRP and the MNLF in 1998. The New People’s Army (NAP), Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) remain active.1

  1. Ibid.

Cease Fire – 1999

There are no reports of any armed clashes between the GRP and the MNLF in 1999. The most frequent perpetrators of attacks were the New People’s Army (NAP), Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).1

  1. Ibid.

Cease Fire – 2000

There are no reports of any armed clashes between the GRP and the MNLF in 2000. From January 1 to December 31, the Global Terrorism Database reports 118 attacks in the country by various armed groups. The majority of attacks were perpetrated by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).1 The Uppsala University Conflict Database reports civil war in 2000 between the GRP and MILF resulting in over one thousand battle-related deaths.2

  1. Ibid.
  2. “UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia,” Uppsala Conflict Data Program, accessed July 24, 2012, www.ucdp.uu.se/database.

Cease Fire – 2001

As stipulated in the peace agreement, a regional plebiscite on the expansion of the four-province Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) was held in August. Only one province, the Muslim majority island of Basilan, voted to join the ARMM. Nur Misuari, MNLF founder and ARMM governor, opposed the legitimacy of the plebiscite election. In November, a new faction of MNLF supporters loyal to the original goals or vision of Nur Misuari attacked an AFP installation in Zamboanga and Jolo island which resulted in 140 deaths. Nur Misuari was arrested on entering Sabah, Malaysia and was held by AFP security forces in the Philippines.1

Though Nur Misuari’s rhetoric may have triggered the violence, and the identity of the new faction is based on allegiance to the original Nur Misuari vision, Misuari denounced the violence and attempted to flee. Hence, this event could be considered a ceasefire violation or a new conflict involving a new splinter group. Fotini, who studies group fragmentation, considers it a new conflict with a new faction, as does UCDP.2

The Uppsala University Conflict Database reports minor armed conflict in 2001 between the GRP and MNLF-NM (a new faction of the original MNLF group) leading to roughly 200 deaths.3

  1. “Philippines,” Amnesty International Report, 2002, accessed July 30, 2012, http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/3cf4bc0f0.html.
  2. Fotini Christia, Alliance formation in civil wars (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012).
  3. “UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia.”

Cease Fire – 2002

The Uppsala University Conflict Database reports minor armed conflict in 2002 between the GRP and MNLF-NM (a faction of the original group led by Nur Misuari) that led to roughly 50 deaths.1

  1. Ibid.

Cease Fire – 2003

The ceasefire between GRP and MNLF was restored in 2003.

Cease Fire – 2004

There are no reports of any armed clashes between the GRP and the MNLF in 2004.

Cease Fire – 2005

The ceasefire between GRP and the MNLF continued to hold in 2005.